This afternoon, something rather peculiar happened. Major news outlets like the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and others reported that the CDC had stated 73% of U.S. COVID-19 cases were now caused by the Omicron variant. Public health figures such as Dr. Ashish Jha, Dr. Eric Topol, and others quickly shared these reports without much scrutiny.
However, the truth is far from what was initially reported. It seems there was a glitch in the CDC's variant proportions Nowcast algorithm. Omicron isn't yet the dominant variant across most of the U.S., although evidence suggests it will be soon. Somehow, this error spiraled from a minor database adjustment on a quiet CDC webpage into a nationwide media frenzy within hours.
Let me break it down. No official announcement or press release was made by the CDC regarding this 73% figure. Instead, it originated from the agency's automated COVID data tracker. But it’s important to note that this isn't raw data; it's the product of the Nowcast algorithm.
The Nowcast algorithm relies on weekly genomic sequencing data from a fraction of U.S. cases—around 3.6%, though this varies by state. The CDC compiles this information to provide regional updates on variant prevalence. Since genomic data processing takes time, the most recent figures are roughly two weeks old.
To present current estimates, the CDC employs the Nowcast algorithm to predict recent trends based on older data. Historically, this tool has been quite reliable, accurately tracking the spread of variants like Alpha, Gamma, and Delta. However, something seems off this week.
When reviewing the national statistics, we see a dramatic leap in Omicron's supposed prevalence. According to the Nowcast, Omicron accounted for 0.0% of cases in the week ending November 20, increased to 0.1% the following week, and reached 0.7% in the week ending December 4. Yet, the algorithm claims it surged to 12.6% in the week ending December 11 and skyrocketed to 73.2% in the week ending December 18.
In other words, the Nowcast doesn't suggest Omicron currently makes up 73% of cases. It implies that it did so back on December 12, essentially stating Omicron grew twentyfold in one week, with a doubling time of about 36 hours over a two-week span. This doesn't align with our understanding of Omicron's growth patterns, which typically show doubling times between two and four days.
Digging deeper into regional data reveals further inconsistencies. For instance, Region 10, encompassing Oregon, Washington, and Idaho, showed no Omicron cases in the week ending December 4, yet the Nowcast claims it jumped to 43.4% the following week and soared to 96.3% by December 18. Such leaps defy logic.
Moreover, these projections don't match up with national case counts or variant interaction trends. States in Region 2, already showing 2.4% Omicron prevalence, experienced significant spikes, but other regions haven't seen similar increases. This mirrors Delta's rise earlier this year, except now we're not observing such widespread surges. National case numbers have remained stable or slightly risen due to localized Omicron outbreaks. If Omicron were truly dominant last week, it would mean Delta vanished abruptly across the nation just as Omicron surged—a highly unlikely scenario.
Despite these discrepancies, the CDC's Nowcast has undoubtedly made a mistake. The national prevalence of Omicron wasn't 73% in the week ending December 18.
Here’s what this means moving forward:
Firstly, expect corrections soon. The CDC will clarify the situation, experts will retract their statements, and the press will issue retractions. It may happen tomorrow, later this week, or next week, but it will happen.
Secondly, this incident shouldn’t reflect poorly on the CDC. They didn’t release this information themselves; it was an automated system. While the Nowcast has been reliable, Omicron's rapid spread has pushed the limits of existing surveillance tools. Bugs like this were bound to occur, and this one happened to gain traction rapidly.
Thirdly, the press mishandled this story. Few outlets with deep expertise in variant tracking, like Science magazine or MIT Technology Review, covered it. Instead, less informed sources like Stat News and the Financial Times ran with the headline, likely without fully grasping the details. Social media experts amplified the confusion, leading to a cascade of misinformation.
Lastly, Omicron’s explosive growth remains undeniable. It’s likely already dominant in places like New York, New Jersey, Florida, and Hawaii, where case numbers are surging. Though this algorithm hiccup caused unnecessary alarm, it’s ultimately irrelevant compared to Omicron’s impending dominance.
So, here’s what you should do:
Prepare for Omicron to dominate your area soon. Stay vigilant and informed. Enjoy watching this narrative evolve. And always question what you read.
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