1. The total profit of the industry in January-November 2009 increased year-on-year. According to the “Major Economic Indicators of Industrial Enterprises†from January to November 2009, the main business income of China's paper and paper products industry was 711.857 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.92%, and the total profit reached 37.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.74%. Benefiting from the stabilization and recovery of the macro economy, the prosperity of the paper industry in 2009 showed a trend of picking up quarter by quarter. At the beginning of the year, the paper industry faced a weak market for downstream demand, while uncertainty about future expectations. However, as the state increased policy input to stimulate domestic demand, the light industry revitalization plan introduced encouragement of exports, paper and paper products enterprises gradually resumed normal production and operation; meanwhile, with the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the profits of paper and paper products enterprises gradually recovered, and the profit of the industry declined. Gradually narrowed, and the total profit of the paper and paper products industry in January-November 2009 achieved year-on-year growth.
2. The overall profitability of listed companies in 2009 increased quarter by quarter. From the perspective of Tianxiang industry, 40 listed companies in the paper packaging industry saw operating revenue of 56.123 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2009, down 9.72% year-on-year, 19.70% and 15.49% in the quarter and first half, respectively; operating profit was 2.962 billion. Yuan, down 41.54% year-on-year, 95.54% and 68.22% in the quarter and the first half respectively; net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.389 billion yuan, down 40.29% year-on-year, and the declines in the quarter and the first half were 91.80% and 66.75% respectively. The decline in the three financial indicators showed a narrowing trend. In the single quarter, the gross profit margin increased quarter by quarter; while the operating income, total profit and net profit attributable to the parent company achieved positive growth during the year in the third quarter, indicating that the performance of listed companies improved quarter by quarter. We expect that the annual operating income of Tianxiang Paper Packaging and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2009 may decrease by 1.7% and 15% respectively.
3. In 2010, the industry's efficiency will be further improved and product bargaining power will be improved. China's paper packaging industry is highly correlated with GDP as a traditional light industry, and it is more related to the proportion of consumption in the troika. The Tianxiang Macro Strategy Group expects GDP growth to rebound to 9.6% in 2010, and considering that relying on large-scale investment to stimulate GDP growth is not sustainable, the weight of future consumption in GDP will gradually increase; in addition, the 2010 Shanghai World Expo It will also have a certain role in promoting consumption. Therefore, as the macroeconomic expectations are expected to pick up further, the paper industry's benefits will further increase. On November 26, 2009, China officially announced its action target of controlling greenhouse gas emissions, and decided to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40%-45% in 2020 compared with 2005. As a typical high-pollution and high-energy-consuming industry, the paper industry may further increase its efforts to eliminate backward production capacity under the influence of this low-carbon storm, which will trigger a new round of industry integration and improve the oversupply of the paper industry. Coupled with the year-on-year increase in exports, we expect that the relationship between supply and demand in the industry will further improve in 2010, competition pressure will ease, product bargaining power will increase, and prices of various paper types will generally increase.
4. Investment Strategy: We believe that with the further recovery of the macro economy in 2010, the paper packaging industry is expected to maintain a high degree of prosperity. Therefore, we maintain an investment rating of “overweight†in the industry. Judging from the subdivided paper types, we believe that: 1) Benefiting from the macroeconomic recovery, the degree of rebound in the demand for cardboard paper and white cardboard with greater elasticity of demand next year will be more obvious; 2) Cultural paper The dynamic balance will be achieved under the policy of favorable policies and new capacity; 3) The competitive environment facing news paper will be fierce, and domestic overcapacity will be more obvious; Tianxiang Investment Consulting Co., Ltd.
2. The overall profitability of listed companies in 2009 increased quarter by quarter. From the perspective of Tianxiang industry, 40 listed companies in the paper packaging industry saw operating revenue of 56.123 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2009, down 9.72% year-on-year, 19.70% and 15.49% in the quarter and first half, respectively; operating profit was 2.962 billion. Yuan, down 41.54% year-on-year, 95.54% and 68.22% in the quarter and the first half respectively; net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.389 billion yuan, down 40.29% year-on-year, and the declines in the quarter and the first half were 91.80% and 66.75% respectively. The decline in the three financial indicators showed a narrowing trend. In the single quarter, the gross profit margin increased quarter by quarter; while the operating income, total profit and net profit attributable to the parent company achieved positive growth during the year in the third quarter, indicating that the performance of listed companies improved quarter by quarter. We expect that the annual operating income of Tianxiang Paper Packaging and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2009 may decrease by 1.7% and 15% respectively.
3. In 2010, the industry's efficiency will be further improved and product bargaining power will be improved. China's paper packaging industry is highly correlated with GDP as a traditional light industry, and it is more related to the proportion of consumption in the troika. The Tianxiang Macro Strategy Group expects GDP growth to rebound to 9.6% in 2010, and considering that relying on large-scale investment to stimulate GDP growth is not sustainable, the weight of future consumption in GDP will gradually increase; in addition, the 2010 Shanghai World Expo It will also have a certain role in promoting consumption. Therefore, as the macroeconomic expectations are expected to pick up further, the paper industry's benefits will further increase. On November 26, 2009, China officially announced its action target of controlling greenhouse gas emissions, and decided to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40%-45% in 2020 compared with 2005. As a typical high-pollution and high-energy-consuming industry, the paper industry may further increase its efforts to eliminate backward production capacity under the influence of this low-carbon storm, which will trigger a new round of industry integration and improve the oversupply of the paper industry. Coupled with the year-on-year increase in exports, we expect that the relationship between supply and demand in the industry will further improve in 2010, competition pressure will ease, product bargaining power will increase, and prices of various paper types will generally increase.
4. Investment Strategy: We believe that with the further recovery of the macro economy in 2010, the paper packaging industry is expected to maintain a high degree of prosperity. Therefore, we maintain an investment rating of “overweight†in the industry. Judging from the subdivided paper types, we believe that: 1) Benefiting from the macroeconomic recovery, the degree of rebound in the demand for cardboard paper and white cardboard with greater elasticity of demand next year will be more obvious; 2) Cultural paper The dynamic balance will be achieved under the policy of favorable policies and new capacity; 3) The competitive environment facing news paper will be fierce, and domestic overcapacity will be more obvious; Tianxiang Investment Consulting Co., Ltd.
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