Ten predictions for 2013: Cloud computing breaks out, HP will split in two

2013 will be the year of cloud computing and will have a devastating impact on many companies in the IT industry. Some technology giants will therefore lose their feet, and at the same time will also trigger the market value of some small businesses to an unprecedented height.

On December 12, Beijing time, RomanStanek, founder and CEO of GoodData, a US business intelligence software provider, recently published an article that predicted the development of the technology industry in 2013. He expects that 2013 will be the year of cloud computing, and social game developers Zynga, Dell and Nokia may disappear.

The following is the main content of the article:

I bet that 2013 will be the year of cloud computing and will have a devastating impact on many companies in the IT industry. Some technology giants will therefore lose their feet, and at the same time, they will cause the market value of some small businesses to increase to an unprecedented level. These companies have previously been unknown and unknown. More importantly, cloud computing will play a role in the recovery of the global economy.

The following are my top ten predictions for the development of the technology industry in 2013, in no particular order:

1. A technology giant will disappear

I ’m not talking about HP. This company may be Zynga, Dell, Best Buy or Nokia. These four companies are difficult to find a new source of revenue in a world obsessed with fashion and highly permeated by social networks. The problems of these enterprises can be attributed to the scale and architecture of cloud computing, which has greatly reduced the threshold for startups to compete with technology giants. However, Dell and Nokia each have different problems to deal with. Of course, with the advent of the post-PC revolution, Dell is trying to find a viable new business model. Nokia is desperately betting all its future on Microsoft's Windows 8 mobile operating system. This is a performance of despair, and it also shows that Nokia's innovations in the past decade will no longer be favored by the mobile market.

2. A startup with fewer than 5 employees will be acquired for more than 1 billion US dollars

Facebook's acquisition of Instagram shows that corporate value is increasingly unrelated to the number of employees. I think it ’s all thanks to cloud computing and Amazon ’s WebServices cloud service. With cloud services, only a few people can quickly build a high-value enterprise based on cloud computing, mobile, and social networking without having to build a large infrastructure in advance. This is standing on the shoulders of giants.

3. HP will split in two

The former technology giant has suffered many blows. For example, Mark Hurd was ousted by HP's board after failing to acquire EDS, an information services vendor at a high price of $ 13.9 billion, and Leo Apotheker took the CEO and acquired Autonomy. Decision, and Autonomy financial fraud, etc. Too many wrong decisions will prevent HP from breaking up. I think HP will be divided into two, its consumer business will be acquired by an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in Asia, and its corporate business will be acquired by a large outsourcing company in India.

4. Twitter will become a truly global media company

Twitter is methodically transforming itself from a geek tool into a 21st century media company. Now that Twitter has eliminated the middleman, it will be able to better control the user and advertising experience. I think Twitter will realize its strategy and vision of becoming a 21st century media company next year.

5. Apple will lose its ecosystem advantages, causing its mobile applications and equipment sales to decline

In order to pursue a consistent look and feel and high quality, Apple has always strictly controlled third-party developers. The Android market of Google (Weibo) adopts a completely different strategy from Apple, and this strategy has enabled Google to win many supporters in the battle of operating platform ecosystem. I think that in this battle, Apple has been defeated. The only question now is how bad the company fell.

6. The venture capital industry will conclude that the enterprise market is difficult to digest and will once again focus on the consumer market

I look at it this way: you are back to your ex-girlfriend, and after two weeks of reconciliation, you find that there was a reason why you broke up with her at first. The problem with the enterprise market is that it has the same risks as the consumer market, but the investment period is longer and the investment amount is higher. I personally don't think that most venture capital firms will be patient with the corporate market.

7. Clean enough energy will be the next gold mine

The United States will become one of the world's largest energy producers. Perhaps my prediction is a bit ahead, but I firmly believe that we will change from the largest energy consumer to the largest energy producer within a few years. Obviously, this price changes the US economy and will also bring huge opportunities for any company involved in the production of clean energy at a sufficiently low price. (Note that what I emphasize is "enough", enough clean energy is not necessarily clean energy.) Is there a risk? This is of course. As Nassim Taleb (Nassim Taleb, a well-known American writer and scholar) wrote in "Antifragile: Profits from Disorder" (Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder), people only invest in more complex projects To profit. If they are already solving future problems, then this is too safe.

8. The US economy will once again become the engine of global economic growth

We can blame or thank BigData, but US companies are more productive and the US economy will slowly implement services. More importantly, I expect that US economic growth will offset the weak economic situation in Europe.

9. Europe's position in the global economy will decline

I don't think the euro will collapse, but I believe that people will no longer be concerned about it. On the contrary, I think that new economic powers such as Brazil and Turkey will rise (not China or India).

10. San Francisco office rent will increase to $ 100 per square foot

I have said enough about this, but I still hope that this will not become a reality.

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