In the face of strict regulation and control policies, the traditional peak season of the real estate market was eclipsed in March, and the property market turnover shrank drastically. Statistics show that among the 30 large and medium-sized cities monitored in March, the transaction volume of 70% of the city's property market increased. However, compared with last March, nearly 80% of the cities fell. In the face of strict regulation and control policies, the traditional peak season of the real estate market was eclipsed in March, and the property market turnover shrank drastically. Statistics show that among the 30 large and medium-sized cities monitored in March, the transaction volume of 70% of the city's property market increased. However, compared with last March, nearly 80% of the cities fell.
The property market is brewing a "turning point." The reporter learned that the volume of transactions in most cities showed a significant decline after the introduction of the “restriction orderâ€. Some key cities fell by nearly 40% year-on-year. At the same time that the volume of transactions fell sharply, housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen began to loosen. And adjust the signs. Experts interviewed believe that with the continued tightening of the property market regulation policy, the property market will accelerate the "turning point."
With the introduction of the “New Country Eight Articles†policy, Shanghai and Chongqing levied property tax, and the local regulations on the regulation of the property market continued to land. The “restriction order†and “local price control target†became the key words of the property market in the first quarter of 2011. As of the end of March, the scope of purchase restrictions has expanded to more than 40 cities across the country, and 608 cities have announced the 2011 “price control targetsâ€.
In the face of strict regulation and control policies, the traditional peak season of the real estate market was eclipsed in March, and the property market turnover shrank drastically. Statistics show that among the 30 large and medium-sized cities monitored in March, the transaction volume of 70% of the city's property market increased. However, compared with last March, nearly 80% of the cities fell. It is particularly noteworthy that the key cities monitored have declined across the board year-on-year, with an overall decline of 40.5%. Among them, Beijing saw the largest decline, reaching 48%, and Nanjing and Hangzhou also fell more than 40%.
The situation of the Beijing property market fell sharply. The reporter also confirmed from the institutions of Yahao, Chain Real Estate, Weiye I love my family and so on. Yahao's statistics show that in March, a total of 5,743 sets of commercial residential buildings were sold in Beijing, with an area of ​​115,000 square meters. Compared with March 2010, the number of commercial residential transactions in Beijing fell by 43.0%, and the transaction area decreased by 48.4%. According to the statistics of the Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network, the real estate market research department showed that the total number of new homes in the first quarter was 20,747, which was 41.5% lower than the fourth quarter of 2010 and 35.8% lower than the first quarter of 2010.
In addition to the sharp decline in the volume of new homes, the volume of second-hand housing in Beijing also fell sharply. According to the statistics of Weiye I Love My Market Research Institute and Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network, in March, the total number of second-hand housing nets in Beijing was 11,102 sets. Compared with the more comparable January, the transaction volume fell by 52.7. %, compared with the same period last year, the volume of transactions also fell sharply by 56.9%.
At the same time as the volume of transactions fell sharply, Beijing's housing prices also showed signs of loosening. According to statistics from Yahao, the average transaction price of commercial residential buildings in Beijing fell sharply in March, dropping to 19,213 yuan / square meter, creating a new low for eight consecutive months, a decrease of more than 20% from the previous month and a decrease of 9.8% from the same period last year.
The statistics of the “Chain Real Estate†market research department also showed that the average selling price of the Beijing new disk project in the first quarter was 27,693 yuan / square meter, up 13% from the fourth quarter of last year; and the average transaction price was only 18,995 yuan / square meter. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, it fell by 10.6%, and the gap between the average transaction price and the average price to be sold was as high as 31.7%.
The situation in Beijing is not a case. Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places have also experienced shrinking sales and falling house prices. The monitoring showed that in March 2011, Tianjin's commercial residential transactions reached 6,286 sets, with an area of ​​620,200 square meters, a decrease of 40.41% from the previous month, and an average price of 8,326 yuan per square meter, down 6.17% from the previous month. Although price volatility is more moderate, it has been going down for four consecutive months. According to the data of the hospital, the average transaction price of commercial residential buildings in Shanghai in March was 13,806 yuan / square meter, down 7.57% from the previous month; the average transaction price of commercial housing in Shenzhen in March was 19,424 yuan / square meter, down 5.65% from the previous month.
Yang Hongxu, director of the Comprehensive Research Department of Shanghai Real Estate Research Institute, said in an interview with the Economic Information Daily that the sharp decline in trading volume and the signs of loose housing prices indicate that the property market in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai will usher in the turning point in April and May. ". "In April, at the latest, it will not exceed May. The comprehensive index of new commercial housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities will fall for the first time, that is, the price will show a 'turning point'."
Yang Hongxu believes that with the increasing pressure from real estate developers, the speed of the push will accelerate, the discount will be increased, and the transaction price of commercial housing will be expected to fall. He stressed that the current funding situation of developing companies has changed from the past easing to the tension. On the one hand, the development of external financing is limited, on the other hand, internal sales are hindered, and with the increase in the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans, the funds of real estate developers will further tighten in the future, and the number of housing enterprises forced to reduce prices will increase.
Niu Fengrui, a researcher at the Institute of Urban Development and Environment of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the implementation of the property market regulation policy introduced in January this year has been nearly three months, and a series of “limited loan†and “restricted purchase†policies that inhibit market demand have begun to appear. One of the performances is that the expectations of buyers are changing and the volume of transactions is falling. As the volume of transactions declines, the return rate of developers' funds will slow down, which will increase the downward pressure on house prices. Even if developers do not cut prices in nominal terms, they may adopt some promotional measures to “dark downâ€.
Chen Guoqiang, vice president of the China Real Estate Society, expressed the same view. If there is no policy loosening in the future, the price reduction window of the property market will come early. He predicted that it is likely to arrive in the second quarter.
However, Niu Fengrui also said that if the "inflection point" that people discuss and expect now refers to the month-on-month or weekly-circle decline in house prices, then this should be a price change in the short-term of the property market, which is microscopic and partial.
expert's point:
If the forecast comes true, how will the home market as a downstream industry in the real estate market be affected? Many experts and netizens have expressed their opinions on this, but the opinions tend to be different.
Viewpoint 1: The price of the house is falling, and the entire property market should pick up, which is definitely good news for the home industry.
Viewpoint 2: The price has dropped so much, indicating that the rigid demand has been phased out. Many consumers have temporarily abandoned the intention to buy a house, or reduced the expenses of the decoration after buying a house, so the home industry is still in a short time. Adverse.
Viewpoint 3: Even if the market is temporarily unstable, the whole industry is still optimistic, especially in the first-tier cities, rigid demand still exists, but it has been temporarily suppressed. With the real estate industry moving towards a healthy and stable track, rigid demand will be released. Especially in the traditional Chinese concept, there is no idea of ​​buying a house, changing a small house, and gradually becoming the main force of the industry after 80, the demand determines the market. So the market potential is still very large.
Viewpoint 4: If the property market is cold and affects the home industry, the impact on low-end products may be even greater. The economic ability of high-end products customers is not a problem, but in comparison, the prospective customers of low-end and mid-level household products are more likely to be affected by the property market price.
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